Only Hot Air? National Parliamentary Discourse and Its Effect on Public Opinion on the European Union

The European Union (EU) is nowadays a hot issue in national politics. As a result of years of intense crises, such as the Eurocrisis, the refugee crisis or, more recently, the war in Ukraine, the EU and the process of European decision-making have become objects of contestation in national parliaments. Existing studies have unveiled that mainstream political parties adopt pro-EU views, whereas extremist political parties defend anti-EU stances. How national parliamentary discourse on the EU affects public opinion, however, remains unknown. Often, individuals have very little knowledge about the EU. Evidence demonstrates that EU politics are perceived as more complex and technical than national politics. Parliaments, the biggest arenas for deliberation and communication, can contribute to the dissemination of information and arguments that foster individuals to formulate their political preferences. Thus, the national parliamentary discourse can, arguably, influence public opinion on the EU. We hypothesise that when radical parties talk significantly more and in a negative tone about the EU, public opinion towards the EU becomes more negative. However, we expect radical right voters to exert a bigger influence over the EU attitudes of diverse types of voters. By looking at parliamentary speech data and individual-level data from eight EU countries between 2000 and 2021, we analyse how public opinion on the EU is shaped by the national parliamentary discourse. Detecting EU-related issues in parliamentary debates through topic models, we analyse the sentiment applied by parties when they talk about the EU.